A hybrid supervised/unsupervised machine learning approach to solar flare prediction

We introduce a hybrid approach to solar flare prediction, whereby a supervised regularization method is used to realize feature importance and an unsupervised clustering method is used to realize the binary flare/no-flare decision. The approach is validated against NOAA SWPC data

Expectation Maximization for Hard X-ray Count Modulation Profiles

This paper is concerned with the image reconstruction problem when the measured data are solar hard X-ray modulation profiles obtained from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI)} instrument. Our goal is to demonstrate that a statistical iterative method classically applied to the image deconvolution problem is very effective when utilized for the analysis of count modulation profiles in solar hard X-ray imaging based on Rotating Modulation Collimators. The algorithm described in this paper solves the maximum likelihood problem iteratively and encoding a positivity constraint into the iterative optimization scheme. The result is therefore a classical Expectation Maximization method this time applied not to an image deconvolution problem but to image reconstruction from count modulation profiles. The technical reason that makes our implementation particularly effective in this application is the use of a very reliable stopping rule which is able to regularize the solution providing, at the same time, a very satisfactory Cash-statistic (C-statistic). The method is applied to both reproduce synthetic flaring configurations and reconstruct images from experimental data corresponding to three real events. In this second case, the performance of Expectation Maximization, when compared to Pixon image reconstruction, shows a comparable accuracy and a notably reduced computational burden; when compared to CLEAN, shows a better fidelity with respect to the measurements with a comparable computational effectiveness. If optimally stopped, Expectation Maximization represents a very reliable method for image reconstruction in the RHESSI context when count modulation profiles are used as input data

Multi-scale CLEAN in hard X-ray solar imaging

Multi-scale deconvolution is an ill-posed inverse problem in imaging, with applications ranging from microscopy, through medical imaging, to astronomical remote sensing. In the case of high-energy space telescopes, multi-scale deconvolution algorithms need to account for the peculiar property of native measurements, which are sparse samples of the Fourier transform of the incoming radiation. The present paper proposes a multi-scale version of CLEAN, which is the most popular iterative deconvolution method in Fourier space imaging. Using synthetic data generated according to a simulated but realistic source configuration, we show that this multi-scale version of CLEAN performs better than the original one in terms of accuracy, photometry, and regularization. Further, the application to a data set measured by the NASA Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) shows the ability of multi-scale CLEAN to reconstruct rather complex topographies, characteristic of a real flaring event

Inverse diffraction for the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly in the Solar Dynamics Observatory

The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly in the Solar Dynamics Observatory provides full Sun images every 1 seconds in each of 7 Extreme Ultraviolet passbands. However, for a significant amount of these images, saturation affects their most intense core, preventing scientists from a full exploitation of their physical meaning. In this paper we describe a mathematical and automatic procedure for the recovery of information in the primary saturation region based on a correlation/inversion analysis of the diffraction pattern associated to the telescope observations. Further, we suggest an interpolation-based method for determining the image background that allows the recovery of information also in the region of secondary saturation (blooming)

Properties of the Acceleration Regions in Several Loop-structured Solar Flares

Using {\em RHESSI} hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy observations, we analyze electron flux maps for a number of extended coronal loop flares. For each event, we fit a collisional model with an extended acceleration region to the observed variation of loop length with electron energy $E$, resulting in estimates of the plasma density in, and longitudinal extent of, the acceleration region. These quantities in turn allow inference of the number of particles within the acceleration region and hence the filling factor $f$ -- the ratio of the emitting volume to the volume that encompasses the emitting region(s). We obtain values of $f$ that lie mostly between 0.1 and 1.0; the (geometric) mean value is $f = 0.20 \times \div 3.9$, somewhat less than, but nevertheless consistent with, unity. Further, coupling information on the number of particles in the acceleration region with information on the total rate of acceleration of particles above a certain reference energy (obtained from spatially-integrated hard X-ray data) also allows inference of the specific acceleration rate (electron s$^{-1}$ per ambient electron above the chosen reference energy). We obtain a (geometric) mean value of the specific acceleration rate $\eta(20$ keV) $= (6.0 \times / \div 3.4) \times 10^{-3}$ electrons s$^{-1}$ per ambient electron; this value has implications both for the global electrodynamics associated with replenishment of the acceleration region and for the nature of the particle acceleration process

The process of data formation for the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) in Solar Orbiter

The Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) is a hard X-ray imaging spectroscopy device to be mounted in the Solar Orbiter cluster with the aim of providing images and spectra of solar flaring regions at different photon energies in the range from a few keV to around 150 keV. The imaging modality of this telescope is based on the Moire pattern concept and utilizes 30 sub-collimators, each one containing a pair of co-axial grids. This paper applies Fourier analysis to provide the first rigorous description of the data formation process in STIX. Specifically, we show that, under first harmonic approximation, the integrated counts measured by STIX sub-collimators can be interpreted as specific spatial Fourier components of the incoming photon flux, named visibilities. Fourier analysis also allows the quantitative assessment of the reliability of such interpretation. The description of STIX data in terms of visibilities has a notable impact on the image reconstruction process, since it fosters the application of Fourier-based imaging algorithms.Comment: submitted to SIAM Journal on Imaging Science